Highlights from Meeting with CCO & CFO

We recently hosted a call with CSX's CCO Maryclare Kenney, CFO Kevin Boone, and Head of IR & Communications Matt Korn. Overall, we view the discussion as largely neutral as management reiterated that volumes are tracking broadly in line with expectations while tighter-than-expected truck markets are fueling intermodal conversion opportunities. CSX did not quantify the expected headwind from the recent spike in diesel prices, but we estimate the 3Q26 drag on OR will be similar to Norfolk at 150-250bps YoY. A stronger truckload market and better service create pricing tailwinds although we are increasingly concerned that the market is overestimating the strength and pace of realized rail rate increases in 4Q26 and 1H27. 3Q volumes are tracking in-line with internal expectations, with growth skewed toward Intermodal and QTD volumes up ~6% YoY, implying ~+4% for the full quarter versus consensus of ~+5%. Management highlighted rate momentum in Merchandise and Intermodal, fuel-driven near-t