Although market pricing remains well below the tightening we expect from the Fed (one further hike in December), ECB (one in December) and BoE (November and February), we are wary of calling the peak in rates given the uncertain energy outlook. We continue to favour relative-value over directional duration trades, including US 2y forward 2s10s steepeners, while taking profit on our inflation swap steepeners. In Europe, we expect further inversion of the ESTR curve (target: -10bp in 2s10s) and favour receiving SONIA 1y1y versus 6m1y on the view that tightening will be reversed relatively quickly. In equities, we believe the market is treating earnings growth as too transitory, although rising US yields have been a 5-7% headwind. If yields continue to rise, we prefer NDX over the RTY. We see Financials and Industrials benefiting from the AI capex cycle. In FX, we introduce five new trade ideas: USDJPY, EURCHF, EURGBP, NOKSEK and XAUUSD (see next page). Within EM, we believe Brazil local