Oatly 3Q26 (Mini) Preview — Updating Estimates to Reflect Encouraging US Consumption Trends But Also Incremental Costs

Oatly (OTLY, Neutral) is scheduled to report 3Q26 earnings on Wednesday, October 28th. For 3Q organic sales growth, we model 9.8%, above the Consensus Metrix estimate of 8.2%, and EBITDA of $7.5MM, just below consensus of $8.5MM. Per Circana, Oatly's measured US consumption growth accelerated roughly 200 basis points quarter over quarter to +12% year over year in 3Q, driven by share gains despite incremental softness in the alternative milk category, partly due to Chobani's recent exit. We think untracked headwinds from share losses at Oatly's largest foodservice customer could be less than in 2025, as was the case in 2Q26. On the cost side, there could be higher incentive compensation-related costs and incremental freight and diesel costs, similar to other food peers, though transportation costs could be more evident in 4Q and especially 2027 than in 3Q. We update estimates to reflect both encouraging consumption trends and the potential for higher incentive compensation and input cos