Global Energy Storage: No sign of an ESS slowdown

Investors are questioning the sustainability of ESS growth in 2027. Despite strong battery demand and shipments since the beginning of this year, slower solar and wind installation growth and comparatively low ESS installations, particularly in China, have raised concerns over the underlying demand trajectory. The widening gap between shipments and installations has prompted questions about whether this year's strength reflects demand being pulled forward from 2027 or inventory accumulation. In this note, we examine the order pipeline and project-development cycle to assess the outlook. Tenders and overseas orders point to continued strong shipments over the next two quarters. Our historical regression shows a strong fit between combined China tenders and overseas orders and Chinese manufacturers' ESS battery shipments two quarters lag. The relationship implies shipments of 403GWh in 4Q26 and 324GWh in 1Q27, representing 90% and 50% yoy growth, respectively. Installation lags explain t