US Softlines Retail — UBS Evidence Lab inside: Secondary Sneaker Market: September Data a Negative for Nike

New UBS Evidence Lab data shows Nike brand footwear prices in the secondary sneaker market decreased 14.7% y/y in September, marking the fifth consecutive month of decline. The September growth rate deteriorated by ~1,100 bps from a 3.7% decrease in August. Jordan brand prices increased 2.2% y/y in September, an approximately 810 bps improvement from a 5.9% decline in August. Adidas decreased 5.4% y/y to $117, an improvement from the 8.1% decline in August, while New Balance decreased 22.4% y/y to $111, a deterioration from the 5.0% decline in August. Overall, we view the data as negative for NKE. Our view is Nike still has considerable work to do to restore sustainable sales growth and meaningful margin expansion, while the market appears to continue pricing in a solid turnaround. Our rating remains Neutral.