New 20/19/18 Framework + APLD Earnings, HUT's Revolver, MARA's Matagorda, WULF's Muskie, CIFR's Extension & GLXY's Caspian

Morgan Stanley North America Powered Shell Providers industry note. We update our 15/15/15 framework to 20/19/18 (20-year leases, 19% yields on capex, and $18/watt of equity value creation), partially offset by higher discount rates reflecting current market conditions. The US faces a ~32GW shortfall (34% of demanded power) through 2028, increasing the value of available, contractable power assets. Price targets: APLD to $41.00 from $37.50, HUT to $275 from $273, WULF to $65 from $62.50, MARA to $10 from $11, RIOT to $35.50 from $43, GLXY to $43 from $48, and CIFR to $51.50 from $54; we remain Equal-weight on APLD. The ERCOT Batch Zero delay raises the relative value of Texas sites with grid access, most notably RIOT.