宏观与微观的交汇：2026年四季度展望——穿越不确定性

In this 4Q 2026 US equity strategy outlook, Citi notes it raised its year-end 2026 base case S&P 500 target to 8100 from 7700 in mid-June, acknowledging the exceptional earnings growth in the first half driven primarily by the AI infrastructure cohort. The base case index EPS estimate is now $365 for 2026 and $400 for 2027, materially higher than the $320 estimate entering the year, while the bull case target of 8300 was not increased. The implication is that downside risks increase relative to upside reward as 4Q unfolds, with a lower target multiple reflecting that the AI play is in the middle innings, if not later. Bear, base and bull cases are 6800, 8100 and 8300. Breadth has improved, with the "other 492" gaining 14.7% YTD versus 12.6% for the Mag 8, though mega cap asset writeups, tariff refunds and higher oil prices drove much of the positive earnings surprise. The index is subtly becoming riskier under the surface as the weight of high-beta stocks climbs while average stock bet