德意志银行于2026年9月28日至10月1日开展第三季度（Q3）全球市场调研，共收到来自全球的460份回复。近期市场受债券收益率上升、财政担忧和地缘政治不确定性主导。投资者认为通胀担忧、财政问题以及美国增长超预期是美债抛售的主要驱动因素，并预计未来12个月10年期美债收益率峰值平均将达到5.7%；68%的受访者预计布伦特原油年底前将低于100美元/桶，尽管多数人认为中期选举前不会达成美伊协议；泡沫风险担忧较6月略有上升。此外，仅2%的受访者未曾将AI用于工作相关任务，低于3月的8%和去年底的14%。报告还涵盖美欧通胀预期等常规问题。
The results of our Q3 2026 Global Markets Survey, conducted between 28 September and 1 October, are now live on the Deutsche Bank Research Institute. Rising bond yields, fiscal concerns and geopolitical uncertainty have dominated markets in recent weeks, and our 460 respondents from around the world offered some fascinating views on what comes next. Among the highlights, investors rank the key drivers of the US bond sell-off, consider how the US will ultimately deal with its debt burden, assess the chances of an Iran deal before the midterms, and give their year-end outlook for oil. We also revisit our regular questions on US and European inflation expectations, where investors see the greatest and least bubble risk, and how rapidly AI is being adopted at work — including its potential impact on productivity and jobs. Headline takeaways: inflation fears, fiscal concerns and stronger-than-expected US growth are seen as the main drivers of the bond sell-off;