Takeaways on China Refining: Demand headwinds, potential capacity rationalization, and constrained exports

We hosted leading energy corporates, policymakers, and industry experts during our Asia LNG Tour on Sep 21-24, meeting with market participants in Beijing, Seoul, and Tokyo. We have three main takeaways on China's refining sector. First, a subdued outlook for long-term China oil product demand: various industry sources project China's total oil demand to contract by 0 to 1 mb/d by 2030 relative to 2025 levels, partly driven by a contraction in diesel demand accelerated by rapid adoption of electric trucks. Second, 2030 China refining capacity is under debate amid potential closure plans: while some expect further capacity expansion through 2030, others forecast accelerated rationalization, with Sinopec research arm suggesting 1.6 to 2.0 mb/d of small and medium-sized refinery capacity could be shut;