Keymed Biosciences (2162.HK): An Emerging Immunology Franchise with Pipeline; Initiate with OW

We initiate coverage of Keymed Biosciences with an OW rating and HK$95 PT. We see Keymed as a differentiated China biologics platform, offering exposure to the underpenetrated immunology market alongside global oncology upside. Our differentiated view vs. the market is that stapokibart (IL-4Rα monoclonal antibody) provides valuation support, while greater upside lies in Sone-Ve, CM336 and CM512, whose global potential remains underappreciated. Following YTD outperformance (YTD +29.7% vs HSHCI's -1.2%), we think the October correction (-17.8% vs HSHCI's -14.3%) offers an attractive entry point for investors, given the potential pipeline reevaluation. As a sanity check, our bull/bear SOTP valuations of HK$123 and HK$60/share imply ~80% potential upside vs. ~10% potential downside. The bear case includes only Stapokibart, Sone-Ve's global third-line and later gastric cancer opportunity and net cash, suggesting asymmetric risk/reward under our assumptions.