August China semicap imports continue to accelerate

China semicap imports grew 25% yoy in August after 8% yoy in July, -1% in 2Q26 and a particularly weak 1Q26. Litho imports now firmly growing yoy (>30% in August). Strength in back-end imports continues. We model China WFE growth of 10%/15% in 2026E/2027E. August imports grew 25% yoy, compared to 8% in July and -1% yoy in 2Q26 (1Q26 was -16% yoy). By product, lithography-related imports grew 32% yoy in August (units up 2% yoy); CVD imports grew 27% yoy; etching grew 37% yoy; assembly/back-end grew 49% yoy, with wire bonders growing 233% yoy. August implies a SAAR of $42.1bn. The recovery is driven largely by the Shanghai region, aligning with ASML commentary that China is driven by logic spending while memory spending is low. We expect China memory spending to accelerate significantly in 2H;