J&T Express (1519.HK): Outstanding parcel volume growth in China and new markets

Nomura maintains Buy on J&T Express (1519.HK) with an unchanged TP of HKD14, implying ~57% upside. 3Q26 overall parcel volume grew 24.8% y-y, above the company's 2H guidance of 15-21%. SEA growth decelerated to 45% from 63% in 2Q (guidance 35-43%), mainly on a high base from aggressive campaign investments by players such as TikTok Shop a year ago, partly offset by Pinduoduo's free-shipping platform and deeper Lazada cooperation. China growth accelerated to 15% from 11%, well above the industry's ~3% and the company's 7-10% guidance, driven by expansion into verticals such as agricultural products and fruits, beauty and 3C with tailored logistics solutions and penetration of remote-area logistics, with the anti-involution policy remaining supportive for unit economics. Other markets surged 160% (2Q: 136%), beating the 86-120% guidance;