过去一周G10外汇市场整体平静，但表面平静之下潜藏风险。法德10年期国债收益率利差虽趋稳但仍处高位，策略上仍将欧元兑美元视为"逢反弹卖出"的品种，维持四季度1.1050的低点目标，并保持2026年底目标不变。柴油价格显现企稳迹象对欧元构成一定支撑，但欧洲天然气库存异常偏低、气价屡创新高，欧洲仍暴露于能源价格上行风险之中。科技股走软可能推动美元进入盘整，但核心观点未变：只要能源价格维持高位、人工智能驱动的投资主题仍在，逢低买入美元依然合适。日元方面，认为美元兑日元155-160区间合理，维持建设性看多立场并持有看涨期权；同时质疑日本投资者因资产回流而推升日元的逻辑。澳元、新西兰元和加元处于盘整，临近利率决议，其中加元是最佳战术性做多头寸。关注美国CPI与纳斯达克走势对美元动能的影响。
The past week has been relatively subdued in G10 FX markets, though the fragile calm belies pending risks. The France-Germany 10-year yield spread has stabilized but remains elevated, supporting a "sell rallies" view on EURUSD, with the Q4 range-low target retained and the end-2026 target unchanged. Tentative signs of diesel price stabilization offer some support for the EUR, but Europe remains exposed given exceptionally low natural gas inventories and gas futures at new cycle highs. Recent softness in US technology stocks may encourage some USD consolidation, yet the core view is unchanged: as long as energy prices remain elevated and the AI-driven investment narrative stays intact, buying USD on dips remains appropriate. For JPY, a 155-160 range for USDJPY is seen as reasonable, keeping a constructive USDJPY stance with a call option, while the team is sceptical of repatriation flows driving JPY strength. AUD, NZD and CAD remain in consolidation ahead of rate decisions, with CAD the