Eat, Drink, Shop: Mexico Consumer 3Q26 Reporting Season (So Far): No Clear Inflection; Risks into 2027 Remain

With six companies having reported, results point to a Mexican consumer backdrop that remains broadly soft rather than clearly improving. There are pockets of resilience, most visibly at Bimbo and Alsea, but these have not been broad based: La Comer saw a sharp SSS slowdown and a sizable EBITDA miss, KCM reported softer than expected results as top-line growth decelerated, and Genomma delivered another weak operating print despite improving Mexico sell-out. Gruma was broadly in line at EBITDA but continued to face significant U.S. pressure. Overall, we see limited evidence of further deterioration but equally little evidence of a broad demand inflection, with results so far skewing more toward misses/in-line prints than meaningful upside surprises. Into 2027, risks are becoming broader than demand alone. Alongside still-soft consumption, companies face varying cost and execution pressures, while Mexico's proposed corporate tax reform adds another potential headwind to earnings and cash