Constructive on copper; looking through a softer SepQ

We remain constructive on copper into year-end. Policy-driven trade dislocations and supply constraints continue to tighten physical copper markets, supporting prices and regional premiums, while low Chinese scrap availability supports cathode demand and ongoing US imports tighten ex-US markets. More broadly, a constructive backdrop persists across much of the commodity complex, with pricing increasingly driven by constrained supply growth, trade dislocations, inventory tightness and rising costs rather than demand, as seen across copper, aluminium and met coal. Miners continue to benefit from resilient commodity prices, positive earnings revisions, strong balance sheets and ongoing portfolio optimisation. We expect a generally softer SepQ from the copper miners, with weather-related disruptions across Chile and Peru weighing on production and unit costs;