Inflation-Linked Daily: AI worries > data?

Barclays' Inflation-Linked Daily covers global inflation markets across the US, euro area and UK. Two dominant themes for the 2026 inflation market have been energy pass-through and AI-related dynamics. Last week's price action implied AI tremors were the dominant driver, overwhelming bullish signals from energy and inflation or labour market data: despite strong CPI and PPI prints and Dec26 RBOB futures near YTD highs, 2yfwd3y CPI swaps fell below 2.45% for the first time since July and pricing for an October hike dropped to only c.13%. Barclays economists revised their FOMC call to include hikes in December and January (not October), expecting core PCE at 3.2% Q4/Q4 this year and 2.6% Q4/Q4 in 2027. Eurozone September HICP was unrevised at 3.77% y/y headline and 2.50% y/y core, with energy the main driver;