德意志银行发布大宗商品油价观点报告，认为市场对美国可能实施柴油出口禁令这一风险计价仍十分有限。报告指出，该禁令并非能在各利益群体中取得明显政治收益的举措，因为其对不同成品油市场的影响差异巨大：柴油价格通常下跌，但其他所有成品油价格可能上涨，甚至大幅上涨；即使实施全面成品油出口禁令亦可能如此，而柴油出口禁令情形下对比更为鲜明。报告称，油价自本周中以来上涨，背景是原油运输状况维持现状（霍尔木兹海峡与曼德海峡液体运输量温和改善），走势更多与伊朗总统周三在联大讲话重申其核计划权利、而美方推动重新优先谈判该议题有关，这构成近期谈判障碍，也强化了市场对可能出台柴油出口禁令的关注。美国柴油现货与期货本周跌幅大于欧洲和亚洲，10月期货冲击强于现货，但市场并未将其作为基准情形。报告测算，若炼厂开工率降至约61%（接近2021年3月十年低点）以中和馏分油平衡所受冲击，则对其他成品油价格的冲击将更为严重；
A possible US diesel export ban is not at all an obvious political win across all constituencies considering the very different impacts across product markets. While diesel prices would generally fall, all other refined product prices are likely to rise, and possibly quite sharply. This would be possible even in the case of a blanket product export ban, but the contrast is more stark when considering a diesel export ban. At this point, markets have only very modestly priced in this possibility. Oil has risen since the middle of the week against a status quo backdrop in oil transit conditions, more closely tied to Iran President Pezeshkian's Wednesday speech at the UNGA where he reasserted Iran's right to pursue its nuclear program, which throws up an apparent obstacle to negotiations for the near term. The new focus on a possible US diesel export ban reinforces this appearance. US diesel spot and futures have dropped by more than Europe or Asia this week, with October futures showing t