布伦特原油价格已从6、7月平均85美元/桶回升至100美元/桶，且因炼油产能中断，柴油、航空煤油等成品油价格大幅上涨，进一步加大消费者价格压力。本文重新评估油价反弹及高于往常的成品油价差对通胀前景的影响。高盛大宗商品策略师预计，基准情形下（中东航运中断持续至2027年、海湾供应逐步适应、产量2027年下半年恢复至战前水平），油价到年底回落至85美元/桶、2027年底降至75美元；柴油零售价年底跌15%、2027年底再跌8%。成品油涨价对航空运输、农业等依赖柴油和航煤的行业增量影响最大。预计能源等大宗商品成本年底前每月推升核心PCE通胀3-5个基点，低于春季；迄今已推升核心PCE同比约0.35个百分点，基准情形下还将再贡献0.15个百分点，能源传导合计约0.45个百分点，约占2026年底核心PCE预测3.1%相对2%目标超调幅度的一半以内。
Brent oil prices have rebounded from an average of $85/barrel in June and July to $100 today, still below the peak reached in the spring. On top of this, a key feature of this year's energy shock is that prices of refined products such as diesel and jet fuel have risen sharply due to disruptions to refining capacity, adding to the pressure on consumer prices. In this Analyst, we reassess the impact of both the latest rebound in oil prices and wider-than-usual refined product spreads on the inflation outlook. Our commodities strategists expect crude oil prices to decline to $85/barrel by the end of the year and $75 by the end of 2027 under their baseline forecast, which assumes shipping disruptions in the Middle East continue into 2027 but that Gulf supply adaptation continues with production gradually recovering to pre-war levels by 2027H2. Higher refined product prices will have the largest incremental effects on sectors with the greatest reliance on products like jet fuel and diesel,