花旗点评科沃斯(603486.SS)2026年三季报:剔除1.05亿元税后非经常性损失(主要为一项上市投资公允价值亏损)后,三季度核心净利润同比下降47%至2.26亿元,低于市场预期,主因毛利率同比下滑10.2个百分点至39.6%。管理层称存储芯片涨价拖累毛利率5个百分点以上,人民币升值影响约2个百分点,当季计入约1000万至2000万元美国关税退款。管理层认为三季度是存储成本的季度环比冲击峰值,但同比成本压力将延续至2027年上半年;期末存储库存可覆盖至2027年二季度用量,若按现货价重估每季度毛利至少减少1亿元。积极方面,销售费用率同比改善6.6个百分点至24.6%,海外线下销售首次超过线上。管理层指引2027季欧盟割草机器人反倾销税(科沃斯平均约47%)不追溯。
Citi flash note on Ecovacs Robotics (603486.SS): excluding Rmb105m after-tax non-recurring loss (mainly fair value loss on a listed investment), core NP fell 47% YoY to Rmb226m in 3Q26, below consensus, on weaker-than-expected GPM (down 10.2ppts YoY to 39.6%). Per management, memory chip inflation took 5ppts+ off GPM and RMB appreciation ~2ppts, while ~Rmb10-20m of US tariff refund was booked in 3Q26. Management sees 3Q26 as the peak QoQ memory hit, but YoY cost pressure persists into 1H27E; memory inventory at end-3Q26 covers usage through 2Q27E and marking it to spot would cut quarterly gross profit by at least Rmb100m. Positively, selling expense ratio improved 6.6ppts YoY to 24.6%, helped by overseas offline sales overtaking online for the first time. The EU anti-dumping duty on robot lawn mowers (~47% average for Ecovacs) is not retroactive and applies to 2027-season shipments. Citi's 2026E NP of ~Rmb1.8bn is ~10% below consensus of ~Rmb2.0bn. Maintain Buy with target price of Rmb