Bosideng International (3998.HK): H1FY27 preview: Stable revenue under proactive sell-in control

We estimate H1FY27 overall revenue to remain stable YoY, while operating profit and earnings could increase 1% YoY under expense control. We expect H1FY27 Bosideng brand revenue to drop 2% YoY, mainly due to declining wholesale revenue (versus self-operated revenue growth of +9% YoY). H1FY27 wholesale revenue growth, lower than April-August distributors sell-through growth (UBSe 5%), was impacted by proactive slower sell-in and inventory swapping with distributors to maintain healthy channel inventory to prepare for the volatile weather conditions from the upcoming winter. In addition, we expect H1FY27 Snow Flying brand/OEM revenues to grow by 12%/7% YoY, and their faster growth compared to Bosideng brand may cause H1FY27 GPM to drop 0.3ppt YoY due to their lower GPMs. We forecast Bosideng brand's April-August sales to grow by around 10% YoY. By channel, we estimate online sales grew about 20% YoY, and offline sales increased by single digits YoY. Self-operated sales grew by low teens