三季度前瞻：增长动能延续，收入与利润均超全年计划；10月销售额同比增速有望超过15%

Morgan Stanley earnings preview on MonotaRO (3064.T). We forecast 3Q F12/26 consolidated revenue of JPY93,754mn (+15.5% YoY) and operating profit of JPY12,852mn (+12.8% YoY), both tracking ahead of full-year guidance (revenue JPY381,379mn, OP JPY530,690mn). GPM could provide upside to profits. October sales growth should remain strong at +15-20% YoY, although November-December growth could slow to roughly flat YoY on a tough comparison base. Accounts are expected at 12.116mn (+10.7% YoY) with average GMV per account +4.6%. We value the stock at 15x 2-year forward EV/EBITDA, the high end of the range for high-growth e-commerce names, with a price target of JPY2,500 (11% upside from the October 30 close of JPY2,243) and an Overweight rating. Upside risk: greater revenue from large enterprise clients as site penetration rises; downside risk: sales efforts targeting large enterprise clients prove less effective than expected. Solid results should support the recent share price recovery.