ab 21 September 2026 Global Research Trade-in subsidies implemented in September Domestic demand rebounded rapidly in Sep; exports likely to remain steady September is the typical peak season for heavy-duty trucks (HDTs). Dealers in multiple regions noted that domestic demand picked up notably from August due to the implementation of trade-in subsidies for China IV vehicles. Downstream applications mainly include coal transportation, express delivery and logistics, and inter-factory cargo transportation. Gas prices remained elevated MTD, while diesel prices also rebounded from early July to the April-May levels. As a result, more HDT users shifted to e-HDTs, with penetration likely to reach a record high. We estimate HDT shipments at 100k units in September, up 16% MoM and broadly on a par with the high base last September. Breaking this down, domestic demand is likely to rise 30% MoM to 60k units, while export volume could be flattish MoM at 40k units. Overview of China’s HDT sales in