Gold: More Than a Rates Trade

Gold's recent resilience suggests structural demand is increasingly offsetting macro headwinds. From here, easing yields and/or oil prices could bring upside, but gold may also prove resilient if rising yields reflect fiscal concerns or rising oil brings stagflation fears. MS targets $5,000/oz by 2Q27. Despite the recent Fed hike, a stronger USD and elevated long-dated bond yields globally, gold has fallen just 10% from August's high to hold above $4,000/oz; extrapolating the March-July relationship with real yields would imply gold below $3,000/oz. Strong central bank buying (289t in 2Q26, ~1,155t annualized;