Americas Oil: Gasoline is stickier than oil...what previous boom cycles tell us about the velocity of crude & products

In $100+/bbl cycles, refined product prices fall more slowly than crude oil prices, so refiners and integrateds are more protected when the cycle rolls over. The report revisits three prior $100+/bbl episodes — the global financial crisis, the "war on shale" and the Russia/Ukraine war — comparing how Brent behaved after peaking with crack spreads over the same window. Brent moved -44%, -46% and +14% respectively, while cracks moved -3%, +22% and +80%; cracks as a percentage of crude rose 9, 24 and 15 points and stayed elevated for 221, 216 and 498 calendar days. If history repeats, refiners and integrateds (XOM Outperform, CVX Market-Perform) would be more protected as oil prices normalize, though conflict in the Strait of Hormuz and Russia/Ukraine could plausibly escalate first and drive prices higher. The team continues to recommend integrated exposure (XOM) and lower-beta E&P exposure (COP, FANG, DVN).