中国铝业（2600.HK）：2026年三季度业绩说明会要点纪要

Chalco held its 3Q26 results presentation on Oct 30. For 9M26, profit before tax for the aluminum/alumina/trading/energy segments was Rmb39.2bn/-0.2bn/1.7bn/0.4bn. Aluminum remains the key profit contributor with full capacity utilization and strong aluminum prices; the alumina loss was mainly in 1H26 on low prices, while Chalco turned profitable in alumina in 3Q26. Management expects bauxite output of ~45mnt in 2026E and targets more than 100% bauxite self-sufficiency by 2030E with some net sales. On the industry outlook, management expects slow overseas supply growth while China's aluminum capacity has reached the cap, implying a largely balanced global aluminum market in 2027E versus a shortage in 2026E;