野村发布日本经济展望报告，聚焦日本央行2026年9月货币政策会议及日本股市宏观前景。日本央行如期将政策利率上调至1.25%，但被视为鸽派的审议委员浅田统一郎与佐藤绫野投下反对票，使会议整体显得偏鸽；气候变化相关融资资金供给操作的调整则体现潜在鹰派倾向。报告援引央行2018年工作论文指出，日本通胀预期锚定区间约为2%上下各40个基点（即1.6%–2.4%）。由于通胀预期再度成为未来加息时点的关键决定因素，报告预计央行将在2026年12月及2027年3月、7月、12月继续加息，终端利率或至少达到2.0%。行长植田和男在记者会上表示货币政策阶段已发生变化，印证政策反应函数正转向更重视通胀预期。
The BOJ hiked its policy rate to 1.25% at its September 2026 MPM, in line with market expectations. Policy Board members Toichiro Asada and Ayano Sato, regarded as dovish, voted against the move, giving the meeting a somewhat dovish impression. Changes to the Funds-Supplying Operations to Support Financing for Climate Change Responses strike us as a slightly hawkish development. A 2018 BOJ working paper estimates Japan's anchor zone at around plus/minus 40bp around 2%, meaning long-term expected inflation below 1.6% or above 2.4% would be undesirable for anchoring. The expected inflation rate will once again be a key determinant for the timing of future rate hikes. We envision additional rate hikes in December 2026, March 2027, July 2027 and December 2027, with a terminal rate of at least 2.0%. Governor Ueda said the phase of monetary policy had changed, supporting our view that the BOJ will be more sensitive to changes in expected inflation rates.