HSBC (0005.HK/HSBA.L): 3Q26 First Take: Inline with softer revenues offset by lower impairments; up to $1bn buyback announced

HSBC reported 3Q26 underlying PBT of US$10.0bn, 4% below GSe and in line with company-compiled consensus. Banking NII was US$11.7bn (-3%/-2% vs GSe/consensus) and non-banking NII was US$7.0bn (-3%/-1%), with softer revenues offset by lower impairments. Credit cost was 31bp versus 40bp/41bp expected, costs were in line, and ROTE ex-notables was 18.2%. Net new money accelerated to US$41bn, including US$38bn from Asia. CET1 was 13.9%; HSBC declared an interim dividend of US$0.10 and a share buyback of up to US$1bn, above GSe of US$0.5bn. FY26 guidance was unchanged, including Banking NII of at least US$46bn and ECL charges of ~45bp. Goldman Sachs maintains Buy on 0005.HK and HSBA.L, seeing downside risk to Banking NII offset by resilient wealth momentum, benign credit and ongoing capital returns.