摩根大通亚太经济研究团队指出，习近平主席预计于9月23—25日访问华盛顿，与特朗普举行年内第二次峰会，这也是其2015年9月以来首次对美国事访问。报告认为此次峰会实质考验有限，双方仅会实现有限度的关系稳定，衡量成功的核心标准是维系5月达成的"战略稳定"框架，即持续对话、可控竞争与损害控制，而非伙伴关系或大交易。经济成果包应比5月共识更为充实但仍属窄范围：关税克制而非正常化、稀土休战延续、有限的芯片许可、增加采购以及选择性投资；人工智能领域更可能建立风险管理对话，而非有约束力的治理协议。伊朗问题与战略水道是最清晰的地缘政治上行空间，霍尔木兹海峡与曼德海峡运输受阻已推高能源、运费与保险成本，布伦特原油现货价9月15日达每桶130.80美元。报告强调，中美相互依赖形成某种"经济威慑"，双方各自掌握先进技术与金融、关键矿产加工与制造供应链的卡点，相互伤害不会阻止胁迫，但会提高失控升级的门槛。
Trump-Xi summit: Low bar, high stakes. President Xi is expected to travel to Washington around 23-25 September for his second summit with President Trump this year. It would be his first US state visit since September 2015. The substantive test is modest: sustaining the 'constructive relationship of strategic stability' agreed in May — continued dialogue, controlled competition and damage control, not partnership or a grand bargain. We expect limited stabilization, with strategic stability a key measure of success. Iran and strategic waterways offer the clearest geopolitical upside, despite tensions over China's links to Tehran. The economic package should exceed May but remain narrow: tariff restraint, a renewed rare earth truce, limited chip licensing, additional purchases, selective investment. On AI, a risk-management dialogue is more likely than a binding governance agreement. On tariffs, we expect managed restraint, not normalization. Interdependence creates a form of economic de