CAP (CAP.SN): 3Q26 Results: Miss Driven by Mining on Higher Costs - Negative

Our take: CAP's EBITDA of $21.9M declined 58.9% q/q, coming in below JPM estimates of $41.0M. The miss was mainly driven by the mining segment, while the other businesses were roughly in line with our estimates. (a) Mining: Iron ore EBITDA of $12.2M declined 72.8% q/q, below our $27.6M estimate, mainly on higher-than-expected costs. On a sequential basis, costs increased due to higher ocean freight expenses and a greater share of sales under CFR terms. C1 increased to $56.9/wmt from $55.4/wmt in 2Q26, mainly reflecting 4.2% lower production following the July weather event, partly offset by lower oil prices. Operations were also temporarily impacted by the extraordinary weather event during 3Q, affecting production and logistics. Looking into 4Q, production is expected to gradually recover as CMP advances into Phase 6 at Mina Los Colorados, although CAP lowered its 2026 production guidance to 14.6-15.1Mt from 15.1-15.6Mt. (b) Industrials: EBITDA was breakeven, in line with JPMe, reflec