本期海湾合作委员会（GCC）周报聚焦地区宏观与地缘动态。海湾国家央行跟随美联储加息25个基点以维持与美元挂钩下的利差，仅科威特央行（CBK）按兵不动，继续成为地区货币政策异类。沙特东西输油管道遭袭，被视为地缘与宏观利空，但报告认为不应过度反应：管道有望部分恢复，沙特仍可借助红海路线、霍尔木兹船对船转运及海外战略库存维持出口。针对一个月供应中断的情景分析显示，经常账户恶化幅度大于财政余额，其中企业税受冲击最大。沙特8月CPI同比持平于1.8%，符合预期，预计2026年均值1.7%。巴林8月官方储备降至31亿美元、非黄金储备降至24亿美元，或主要与外债偿还有关。阿联酋二季度财政表现好于预期，录得45亿迪拉姆盈余，对全年财政预测构成显著上行风险。报告同时跟踪霍尔木兹海峡及地区港口海运活动。
GCC central banks raised policy rates by 25bp in line with the Fed hike, preserving interest-rate differentials under USD pegs, with Kuwait's CBK the sole exception, leaving its policy rate unchanged despite a less favorable macro backdrop. The recent attack on Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline marks an expansion of the regional conflict, a macro and geopolitical negative, but we remain cautious about over-reacting: available indications suggest the outage may be temporary, with partial restoration of flows potentially returning around half of capacity within days, and Saudi Arabia retains alternative export options and operational flexibility, including the Red Sea route, ship-to-ship transfers and strategic crude stocks outside the Gulf. Scenario analysis assuming a one-month disruption to Saudi crude exports (supply losses of 10-80% from roughly 7.5mb/d, with every 1mb/d removed lifting prices by about US$4/bbl) suggests the current account would deteriorate more than the fiscal bal