HDDs (STX, WDC): Toshiba's storm in a teacup

Bernstein comments on Toshiba's announcement to expand HDD production capacity, which it views as widely misquoted and misunderstood by the press. Toshiba actually said it aims to nearly double annual production capacity by FY2027 (ending March 2028) on a storage-capacity (exabyte) basis, not physical units. If Toshiba doubles its EB output while WDC and Seagate each grow 25%, Toshiba's EB share would rise only from 11.2% to 16.8%, far from the 30% reported in the press. In 2022 Toshiba similarly targeted a rise to 25% and then 30% share, but its share actually fell from 17% to 11%. Nikkei's reported $380 million investment represents only ~12% of Toshiba's roughly $3.1 billion annual HDD revenue, while Seagate and Western Digital spend ~5% of revenue on capex for ~25% exabyte growth;