Lam Research (LRCX.O): Component shortages vs cycle longevity

We had previewed a meaningful beat and raise, but were wrong: LAM guided DecQ revenue to $8.6bn vs. MSe at $9bn, and guided CY2026 WFE to the mid-$150bn range with a preliminary CY2027 outlook of $200bn+ (vs. MSe $163bn/$223bn). At SEMICON West we heard the first tangible examples of component shortages and order pushouts this upcycle, with PCBs emerging as a bottleneck for assembling Mass Flow Controllers and a DRAM customer pushing deliveries from DecQ to MarQ on cleanroom delays; we underestimated the near-term impact and got the timing wrong, as LAM acknowledged its DecQ guide would have been higher absent supply chain constraints. Component shortages are bad, but perhaps not for the longer term: industry WFE has grown from a ~$125bn annualized run rate to ~$200bn in just four quarters, and these demand- and supply-side constraints may prevent the industry from overshooting in 2027, extending the cycle and reinforcing our 2028 conviction. LAM noted each percentage point of NAND bit