China Rare Earths: Takeaways from MP Materials (MP.N; Not Covered) on the U.S. Supply-Chain Buildout

We had a catch-up call with MP Materials, with Martin Sheehan, SVP, Investor Relations, presenting. Management targets 6ktpa of NdPr oxide, with normalized cash cost in the high-US$40/kg range versus a US$110/kg government price floor, and expects ~3ktpa of magnet capacity by mid-/late-2027 and ~10ktpa by end-2028. Management believes a truly mature and commercially competitive U.S. rare-earth supply chain will take well beyond five years, supporting the rationale for 10-year government agreements. Key bottlenecks are refining scale-up, non-China equipment supply, magnet qualification and heavy rare-earth capability. In 2Q26, contract pricing averaged ~US$94/kg on ~1kt sales, with roughly US$16/kg of PPA support;