本周报回顾9月美国通胀与增长数据。通胀整体高于预期，核心PCE与核心CPI双双加速，核心商品价格出现广泛上涨，为年初以来最大单月升幅，消费电子、玩具等价格受关税与AI相关溢出效应推动走高，业主等价租金（OER）亦超预期走强；PPI细节显示管道通胀压力仍在延续。尽管数据偏强，美联储官员讲话显示10月行动紧迫性不高，主席沃什淡化对单一数据的依赖，多位官员倾向10月暂停、12月再加息，但对2027年是否继续加息分歧加大，部分官员提示AI投资带来的近端通胀风险。增长方面，实际零售销售回落，但工业产出与制造业产出回升且改善面较广，三季度GDP追踪值小幅下调，整体经济活动仍属稳健。报告维持美联储10月暂停、12月加息的判断。
September inflation data broadly surprised to the upside, prompting Nomura to revise up its core PCE forecast, with sticky core goods inflation and AI-driven price pressures posing upside risks. Core CPI accelerated, led by an outsized rise in owners' equivalent rent, while core goods prices posted their largest monthly gain since early 2025 on higher consumer electronics and toy prices. Despite the firmer data, recent Fed commentary suggests little urgency to tighten in October: Chair Warsh downplayed data-point dependency, and most officials appear comfortable with a pause before a December hike, though views diverge on further hikes in 2027. Growth data were mixed, with real retail sales falling while industrial and manufacturing production rebounded broadly; the Q3 GDP tracking estimate was lowered but overall activity remains strong. Nomura maintains its call for an October pause followed by a December hike.