China TMT: AI adoption meets the funding test

AI adoption is becoming more commercially visible, most directly measurable among cloud and infrastructure providers, along with select hardware names; it appears more embedded and less directly measurable among application-led companies. Spending continues to accelerate but capex acceleration remains concentrated in infrastructure-led platforms rather than sector-wide. Alibaba and Tencent are already operating at a different scale, with 2Q26/Jun-Q capex totalling approximately CNY120bn. The liquidity walks identify Baidu (UW) as the issuer most likely to require additional funding in the next 15 months, followed by Alibaba (MW) later in the forecast horizon;