美银美林重申泰尔茂(4543.JP)买入评级,维持目标价3200日元,基于FY3/28 EV/EBITDA 13.5倍(三年均值)。报告计入收购Arsenal Medical及终止与CSL Plasma供应协议的影响,将FY3/27营业利润预测下调37%以反映减值,但上调FY3/28–FY3/31预测1%–2%,主要因Rika业务亏损收窄。预计第二季度调整后营业利润688亿日元,超市场预期7%,公司或宣布约300亿日元股票回购。12月15日的中期计划(MTP)预计带来两大正面催化剂:财务目标与心血管(C&V)增长战略更新。
BofA Securities reiterates its ¥3,200 price objective and Buy rating on Terumo (4543). We reflect the acquisition of Arsenal Medical and the termination of the supply agreement with CSL Plasma. We cut our FY3/27 operating profit forecast by 37% to incorporate the impairment but raise our FY3/28–FY3/31 forecasts by 1–2%, mainly to reflect narrower losses at Rika. We maintain our ¥3,200 PO, based on 13.5x FY3/28 EV/EBITDA. With the negative news apparently now out, we expect the shares to bottom ahead of 2Q results and the medium-term plan (MTP) announcement. We forecast 2Q adjusted operating profit of ¥68.8bn, exceeding consensus by 7%, and think the company may announce a share buyback of around ¥30bn. We expect the MTP announcement on December 15 to provide two positive catalysts: financial targets and an update on its C&V growth strategy. We envisage bolt-on acquisitions of diagnostic and therapeutic devices in coronary, neurovascular, peripheral and aortic care as the core of the st