How much runway is left in the data center construction cycle?

With hyperscaler capex now exceeding cash flow from operations and the midterms introducing the potential for new constraints on development, investor focus has increasingly shifted to how much runway remains in the US data center construction cycle. We segment the planned US data center capacity pipeline into three categories: (1) under construction, (2) high probability announcements (per Aterio definition), and (3) remaining medium and low probability announcements, then layer each into a construction spending trajectory and size the total construction opportunity. Bottom line: we see good visibility into continued US data center construction spending growth through 2028 from projects already under construction and announced projects Aterio views as high probability. While midterm results introduce additional risk to project timelines, a potential outcome is extending the duration of the cycle rather than significantly impacting the TAM. Projects under construction support strong sp