US Semiconductors: Quantum State of the Union: focus on fault tolerance fundamentals, not funding fears

Remain constructive on quantum; focus on roadmaps. IONQ saw pressure after its all-stock $1.3bn Elisity acquisition and $2bn stock offering heightened dilution concerns, raising questions on why it is raising additional cash ahead of the 2Q27 Superion launch with ~$2bn already on the balance sheet post SKYT. We see potential for IonQ to expand its quantum technology portfolio with minimal further near-to-medium-term fundraising, and DARPA moved IONQ into QBI Stage C, worth up to another $300m. QNT's selloff may have been driven by its absence from the first wave of Stage C vendors, though each vendor has different timelines independent of platform performance. QNT retains a significant logical qubit lead, with next-gen Sol (2H27) and Apollo (2029) on track. Trapped-ion remains our preferred modality;