Bernstein APAC Oil: Oil price outlook and upside from here

Bernstein's Asia-Pacific Oil & Gas report assesses the oil price outlook and the upside from here. Brent is back above US$100/bbl and price momentum could continue, taking Brent into the US$100-150/bbl range, with only limited near-term scope for de-escalation. Flows out of the Middle East have ticked up but remain well below pre-war levels, leaving markets chronically undersupplied. Chinese imports are ticking higher again and are the biggest swing factor for oil prices, after a reduction in imports that was partly demand destruction and partly enabled by tapping commercial and strategic oil reserves; the strategic reserve limit is expected to be reached by the end of September. We forecast Brent at US$90/bbl for 2026 and US$78/bbl for 2027, dependent on resolution to the Middle East conflict, and have raised our LNG price forecasts for 2026 and 2027 to account for a prolonged outage of Qatari supply;