本报告为摩根大通新兴市场前沿经济体周度观察。蒙古央行于9月17日维持政策利率12.5%不变，符合预期，此前8月曾非常规加息50个基点并上调本币存款准备金率50个基点。8月整体通胀自7月近四年高位13%回落至12.5%，仍远高于5%±2%的中期目标，乌兰巴托核心通胀降至7.2%；央行提示油价上涨、全球粮价走高以及补充预算和明年预算草案下的财政扩张带来通胀上行风险，预计2026年余下时间维持利率不变，但加息风险上升，最早或在2026年末至2027年初。巴基斯坦国家银行9月14日将政策利率维持在11.5%，认为正的实际利率足以抑制需求端压力并遏制食品能源价格二次效应，预计同样按兵不动。此外，南亚重回燃料紧缩政策，越南据报道计划发行约10亿美元主权债，为2014年以来首次，用于大规模基建；斯里兰卡二季度GDP同比增长4.2%，全年增速预测由3.2%上调至3.6%。
This is an overview of key economic and market-relevant developments in Asia Edge economies. Mongolia and Pakistan held rates steady while flagging rising inflation risks; we expect both to remain on hold in 2026, but risks are shifting towards hikes, particularly in Mongolia. The Bank of Mongolia kept its policy rate unchanged at 12.5% on September 17, following an off-cycle 50bp hike and a 50bp increase in the MNT reserve requirement ratio in August. Headline inflation moderated to 12.5% in August from a nearly four-year high of 13% in July, but remained well above the 5%±2% medium-term target, and the central bank highlighted upside risks from higher fuel prices, global food prices, and increased budget spending and wages. We expect inflation to ease to 11% by end-2026 and 7% in 2027, and see the BoM on hold for the rest of 2026 with increased risks of a hike in late 2026 or early 2027. The State Bank of Pakistan kept its policy rate unchanged at 11.5% at its September 14 meeting, v