Aeroports de Paris (ADP.PA): Traffic guidance revised lower, EBITDA guided to lower end of the range

ADP reported 9m traffic figures after close yesterday (15 Oct, -2% yoy, -1.6% in June), and revised its full year traffic outlook lower on the back of the release. The company now expects 2026 traffic to show a slight decrease yoy (vs. previously expected to increase around 0.5% yoy, and our estimate for traffic to be flat yoy). Note scheduled seats for Q4 imply cont'd negative traffic growth. As a result of lower traffic, the company now expects 2026 EBITDA at the lower end of its €2.3-2.35bn range, in line with our estimate (€2.31bn). We are Neutral rated on ADP, with a 12m DCF-based SOTP price target of €130. Key risks include higher/lower-than-expected retail spend, higher/lower traffic, and regulation.