1月就业：鹰派盛宴

Across the board strength. The star of today's hawkish report was the u-rate, which declined one-tenth to 4.3% and that too for "good reasons": household employment rose 528k, unemployment fell 141k and the LFPR increased a tenth to 62.5%, while the U-6 rate fell from 8.4% to 8.0%. In the establishment survey, Jan NFP surged to 130k vs 48k in Dec, with Nov-Dec revised down only 17k and private payrolls up 172k; however, the strength was narrowly driven by education & health (137k), professional & business services (34k) and construction (33k), likely reflecting seasonal distortions. QCEW-based benchmark revisions came in as expected at -860k, concentrated in 2H24, with Apr-Dec'25 revised only -25k/mo. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% m/m, weekly hours edged up to 34.3 and the aggregate weekly payrolls index accelerated to 4.8% y/y, supportive for consumption. The broad-based strength vindicates our view that the Fed won't cut under Powell;