ASMPT (0522.HK): 4Q26 revenues to grow at +0% to +9% QoQ; 3Q26 beat; TCB / Photonics to ride on AI infrastructure upcycle

ASMPT's 4Q26 revenue guidance of US$670-730mn implies growth of +32% to +43% YoY / +0% to +9% QoQ, with the midpoint 3% / 9% higher than GSe / Bloomberg consensus. Management expects double-digit sequential revenue growth in SMT, while SEMI revenue should remain broadly stable due to longer delivery lead times for advanced packaging products, and expects 4Q26 bookings to remain at a high level YoY, with AI-related demand continuing to support 2027 revenue growth. For 3Q26, revenue was slightly above GSe and consensus, gross margin was broadly in line, operating income beat on a lower-than-expected opex ratio, and net income was above GSe but below consensus. Group bookings reached a record with a book-to-bill ratio of 1.69. We remain Neutral with a 12-month target price of HK$183, and believe TCB and Photonics should ride the AI infrastructure upcycle; key risks are the pace of advanced packaging adoption, automotive demand, and traditional IC packaging and SMT equipment demand.