Budweiser Brewing Company APAC Ltd (1876.HK) 3Q26 Organic EBITDA 12% Below Expectation

BUD APAC's group organic EBITDA fell 23% YoY in 3Q26 (APAC West -26% YoY; APAC East -14% YoY), 12% below Citi and VA consensus forecasts, due to weaker-than-expected China volume (-17% YoY) and a lower-than-expected EBITDA margin (-446bps YoY), although topline was largely in-line. Group organic volume fell 10% YoY (APAC West -11%; China -17%; APAC East -3%) and group ASP grew 2% YoY. Core net profit fell 28% YoY to US$147m, including a US$30m provision for overdue receivables from the state beverages corporation of Telangana, India; reported net profit fell 50% YoY to US$92m, further impacted by US$52m of non-underlying withholding tax related to the internal restructuring of its mainland China subsidiaries. China volume declined as the company managed inventory levels amid adverse weather and continued on-premise weakness;