Brazil Copom: 25bp Selic Cut to 13.75%; Repeats Agnostic Forward Guidance

The Copom delivered another 25bp rate cut, driving the Selic to 13.75% (unanimous decision in line with GS and consensus). The policy statement remained short and broadly neutral. The Copom now sees evidence of a gradual deceleration of economic activity, particularly among cyclical sectors, but overall activity is still judged at a "resilient level" and the labor market continues to be characterized as "hot". The balance of risks for inflation did not change, with both upside and downside risks still characterized as higher than usual, "with upside bias". No explicit forward guidance: the Copom reaffirmed "serenity and caution in the conduction of monetary policy" in the current environment marked by significant uncertainty, unanchored inflation and heightened risks, and will monitor the evolution of the macro baseline to preserve "an adequate monetary restriction". Conditional inflation forecasts did not change significantly: headline at 3.9% by 4Q27 and unchanged at 3.2% for 1Q28, w