Chacha Food Co. (002557.SZ) Earnings review: confident on CNY shipments; sunflower seed cost tailwind likely and commitment to shareholder returns

Chacha reported 3Q26 results on 22 Oct, with a net profit miss on softer sales and a higher tax rate, though gross profit margin continued to expand; we attended the online briefing on 23 Oct. Key takeaways: 1) Sunflower seeds and nuts both grew in 3Q26, with nuts expanding faster (<10% growth), and October trading has remained solid. January CNY shipment days are expected to fall 5-10 days yoy on timing shifts, partly offset by 5-10 additional peak shipment days in December, supporting 4Q26 revenue while pressuring 1Q27;