TC Energy Corp. (TRP.TO): 3Q26 Preview: Expect Solid Quarter; Visible Project Catalyst Path Into Year-End

Ahead of 3Q26 earnings, we refresh our estimates for TC Energy (TRP, Buy). We expect 3Q26 EBITDA of C$2,875m, slightly higher vs consensus of C$2,820m (+2%) and our prior estimate of C$2,820m (+2%). Our estimate moves higher on favorable FX impacts in US and Mexico Gas and increased Power estimates (Bruce availability, natural gas storage). Most in focus will be updates on the US and Canada natural gas transmission opportunity sets, where we will look for execution on larger Midwest projects (Crossroads, as example) alongside smaller to medium projects by YE26. We expect Canada Gas EBITDA of C$937m, US Gas C$1,176m, Mexico Gas C$441m and Power C$324m. Conversion of TRP's pre-FID backlog remains the most important driver for the stock;