美联储9月会议如期加息25个基点，为2023年7月以来首次，决议一致通过。主席Warsh表示政策"移除了一剂宽松"，且不认为广义金融条件具有限制性，暗示这更可能是一轮加息周期的开始。会后前端收益率上行6个基点、曲线趋平8个基点，1年1年OIS突破2022-2023年紧缩周期高点，OIS远期隐含2026年底前加息33个基点、2027年三季度前累计加息80个基点。SEP偏鹰，2027年点阵图显示8位委员预计明年再加息，长期中性利率升至3.25%（十年新高）。通胀市场维持收窄倾向，因核心CPI与核心PCE缺口收窄至-0.9%。我们仍预测年内仅再加息一次，因持仓偏多且其他发达市场出现头寸平仓，倾向耐心而非在前端增加久期。财政部将拍卖190亿美元10年期TIPS，高实际收益率、合理估值与持续资金流入应使拍卖平稳消化。
The Fed raised rates by 25bp, its first hike since July 2023, with a unanimous decision. Chair Warsh argued that "we removed a dose of accommodation" and that he "would be hard pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive," indicating this is likely more than a one-and-done hiking cycle. Front-end yields rose 6bp and the broad curve flattened 8bp, with 1y1y OIS eclipsing its highs from the 2022-2023 tightening cycle; OIS forwards now price 33bp of hikes by YE26 and a total of 80bp by 3Q27. The SEP skewed hawkish, with the 2027 dots showing 8 participants projecting an additional hike and the longer-run dot rising to 3.25%, its highest in a decade. For inflation markets, we maintain a narrowing bias given the core CPI-PCE wedge narrowing to -0.9%. We continue to forecast just one more hike and would rather be patient on adding front-end duration given modestly long positioning and position unwinds in other DM rates markets. Treasury will auction $19bn reopened 10-year T