高盛经济研究团队发布全球未来一周展望(9月21日—9月27日),重点梳理各国央行议息会议与关键经济数据的高盛预测及偏离共识的观点。本周南非、瑞典、挪威、墨西哥、匈牙利、瑞士、埃及、加纳和印尼央行将召开会议,高盛预测均与市场共识一致:瑞典1.75%、瑞士0.0%、挪威4.5%、匈牙利5.5%、墨西哥6.5%、埃及19.0%、加纳14.0%、印尼5.75%、南非7.25%。关键全球指标包括澳大利亚失业率、欧元区制造业PMI、欧元区服务业PMI和南非CPI。高盛强于共识的预测为:澳大利亚失业率(高盛4.4%,共识4.5%)、欧元区制造业PMI(高盛52.7,共识52.6)。本周偏离共识最大的预测为:台湾工业生产同比(高盛28.0%,共识24.6%)和哥伦比亚贸易差额(高盛-23.0亿美元,共识-26.175亿美元)。
We highlight our Economics teams' forecasts of central bank decisions and economic data for the coming week, including our most out-of-consensus views. Central banks in South Africa, Sweden, Norway, Mexico, Hungary, Switzerland, Egypt, Ghana and Indonesia are scheduled to meet this week. Our forecasts are in line with consensus for Sweden (1.75%), Switzerland (0.0%), Norway (4.5%), Hungary (5.5%), Mexico (6.5%), Egypt (19.0%), Ghana (14.0%), Indonesia (5.75%) and South Africa (7.25%). Key global indicators released this week include Australia Unemployment Rate, Euro Area Manufacturing PMI, Euro Area Services PMI and South Africa CPI. We are stronger than consensus on Australia Unemployment Rate (GS: 4.4%, consensus: 4.5%) and Euro Area Manufacturing PMI (GS: 52.7, consensus: 52.6). Our most out-of-consensus forecasts for the week are Taiwan Industrial Production yoy (GS: 28.0%, consensus: 24.6%) and Colombia Trade Balance FOB (GS: -2300.0 USD mn, consensus: -2617.5 USD mn).