Active managers’ holdings update: Peak exposure to capex vs. consumption.

The easy money in capex vs consumption has been made, based on an analysis of long-only active funds' industry exposure versus history. This is somewhat justified, as a shift from consumption to capex has been our core thesis for 2026. But alpha from buying AI capex beneficiaries and selling white collar consumption themes may be harder fought given the current positioning line-up. Industrials weights are near record highs vs. Discretionary; AI disruptees positioning sits near record lows and relative weights in needs vs. wants have surged. We think it's time to selectively pivot, as it is dangerous to underestimate the appetite of US consumers and capex strength may be more priced in than not. We are neutral on TMT after recently raising Comm Svcs. to M/W, joining Tech. After several years of the S&P 500 beating most other indices, active managers' holdings outside of the S&P 500 are close to all-time lows, at 15%, cash levels have stuck at lows since 2024, and ADR exposure has barely